Australia’s two-party system besieged, if not broken, by election

We’re sorry, this feature is currently unavailable. We’re working to restore it. Please try again later.

Advertisement

Opinion

Australia’s two-party system besieged, if not broken, by election

A black swan is an unpredictable event, the consequences of which are profound. If in Australia’s recent electoral history any poll qualifies as a black swan, then it was last month’s contest. The election delivered that rare thing, a change of government – only the eighth time this has happened in as many decades since the end of World War II. Even more momentously, the election left Australia’s two-party dominant system, if not broken, besieged.

Albanese celebrating victory with his partner Jodie Haydon and son, Nathan. The government has only changed eight times since World War II.

Albanese celebrating victory with his partner Jodie Haydon and son, Nathan. The government has only changed eight times since World War II.Credit:Janie Barrett

A little history of Australia’s party system illustrates how significant is the latter development. Settling in 1909, the nation’s Labor versus non-Labor party arrangement is more than a century old. During the Commonwealth’s first decade three parties vied for government: the Liberal Protectionists, the Free Traders and the Labor Party. Alfred Deakin, the leader of the Liberal Protectionists and dominant political figure of that era, famously used a cricketing analogy to characterise that situation, calling it the “three elevens”.

Deakin’s Liberal Protectionists, supported by Labor, governed for most of that decade enacting much foundational nation building legislation. But the tripartite party system made for topsy-turvy politics: there were eight separate ministries and five prime ministers in those 10 years. What made the system unsustainable in the final analysis, however, was Labor’s growing electoral might, which came largely at the expense of the Liberal Protectionists.

Cornered, Deakin sorrowfully agreed in 1909 to unification with the conservative Free Traders. Some of his colleagues, in fact, so abhorred the Free Traders that they refused to join the new non-Labor alliance. They feared, as The Age predicted, that fusion, as it was known, would be a “political boa constrictor” which would see liberalism swallowed whole by conservatism.

Alfred Deakin, Australia’s second prime minister and leader of the Liberal Protectionists early last century.

Alfred Deakin, Australia’s second prime minister and leader of the Liberal Protectionists early last century.

As this suggests, the legacies of fusion were not only the settlement of the Labor versus non-Labor party system, but the uneasy coexistence of liberal and conservative elements on the non-Labor side of politics.

The party system created in 1909 proved remarkably resilient. It has survived three serious splits in the ALP, and several reorganisations of the major non-Labor party, which, following several incarnations, settled under the title of the Liberal Party in 1944. The party system also weathered sporadic challenge from minor parties, most of which enjoyed only a relatively short-lived existence.

For most of the 20th century, the two-party dominant system (with the Liberals in permanent coalition with the Nationals, formerly the Country Party) monopolised more than 90 per cent of the primary vote. By the final election of that century, that joint primary vote declined to a smidgen under 80 per cent. It recovered in the first decade of the 21st century to hover above 80 per cent, only to trend down again from 2010. Falling under 80 per cent at the past four elections, it fell dramatically at this election to about 68 per cent.

Until this election, most of the erosion in primary vote afflicted Labor. A significant chunk of its supporter base had shifted to the Greens, tantamount to a split. The notable thing about the 2022 election is the problem of declining primary voter support has now stricken the Coalition as it sheds votes both to right-wing minor parties and progressive independents. If Labor’s record is anything to go by, having seen its primary vote fall well under 40 per cent, the Coalition will struggle to return to that level of support.

Advertisement

Indeed, the decline in major party support seems an inexorable feature of the 21st century Australian political landscape. Is it time to write obituaries for those parties? Not quite. Unlike the situation in many comparable democracies, Australia’s major parties are sustained by two elements of the nation’s electoral system.

Loading

Compulsory voting, a distinctive feature of Australian democracy, spares the major parties from the need to “get out” the vote. It effectively puts a floor under their support. Preferential voting, which compels voters to make a choice between the major parties, can gift them a level of representation above the proportion of their vote share. Hence, Labor, thanks to preferences, has won a narrow majority in the House of Representatives despite securing only a third of the primary vote.

It is probable that continuing decline of primary support for the major parties will stimulate debate about change to the electoral system. Already since this poll, suggestions have surfaced for a return to first-past-the-post voting. The system that prevailed before the advent of preferential voting in 1918, its effect would most likely, however, only prop up the major parties. More radical, and difficult to achieve, would be some form of a multi member proportional voting system as exists in New Zealand.

Another characteristic of a black swan event is that its long-term consequences are difficult to foretell. This is where we stand in the wake of the “new paradigm” election of 2022.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.

Most Viewed in Politics

Loading