Race-by-race preview and tips for Rosehill on Saturday
By Brad Gray
Race 1 – 11AM ATC BOOKMAKERS RECOGNITION DAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
1. Osipenko put a handy field of two-year-olds to the sword on debut at Rosehill and the most impressive part of his win was his strength through the line. His last 200m split was 2.5 lengths faster than the next best. The tempo was genuine in the early stages and he won’t get that here, but we saw in his trials that he has tactical speed so expect him to camp on the back of the leaders. He’ll eat up the 1400m, and further again in time. Beautifully placed to remain unbeaten. The obvious threat is 2. Kibou. He resumed a gelding at Warwick Farm and raced clear to score a dominant victory. Does jump from 1100m straight out to 1400m, but he’s in the right stable.
How to play it: Osipenko to win.
Osipenko can get punters off to a good start at Rosehill.Credit:Getty
Race 2 – 11.35AM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
10. Just Strolling is chasing three straight wins and like the depth of form behind him. After fitness beat him first up at Scone over 900m, where he was pipped on the post, he was always in control over 1000m at Gunnedah. Bootscooter ran on into third there. He then went to Scone and got the better of proven city performer King Kapa. He’ll roll forward to put himself in the first couple with the only query being that he needs to stretch to 1200m. There is no such query around 6. Island Press, given he has won out to the mile. The former Chris Waller-trained galloper hit the ground running for his new stable, Dean Mirfin, winning three of his four starts.
2. Pure Fuego really savaged the line first up behind Boom Boom Basil, clocking one of the fastest last 600m splits of the meeting.
How to play it: Just Strolling to win.
Race 3 – 12.10PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)
4. Harvey’s Way gets his chance to turn the tables on 1. French Bonnet from Midway company at Rosehill two weeks ago. He gets a 2.5kg weight swing for being beaten less than a length and French Bonnet doesn’t map to get such a cosy run this time from a tricky gate. Harvey’s Way was five weeks between runs there, too. Also think the dry track favours him. The race is going to be won or lost for French Bonnet in the first couple of hundred metres. She should get a cart across from 7. Big Surprise to race handy, but both of her recent Midway wins have been from the box seat. Awinner of six of her 15 starts, she’s still largely an underrated mare.
How to play it: Harvey’s Way to win.
Race 4 – 12.45PM FURPHY HANDICAP (1800 METRES)
7. Willinga Rufio is winning despite still learning on the job. His superior stamina got him home at Hawkesbury on debut over 1500m before he went straight to Rosehill and never looked like losing from in front. The son of Dundeel, trained by Mark Newnham, still didn’t really know what he was doing when asked to quicken in the straight and despite wobbling all over the place he still held a commanding margin. 11. Naval Seal is still in his first campaign and was well held in midweek company before being sent to Melbourne, but his two runs down there suggest he continues to improve. Gets in light and maps to get every chance in the run. 12. African Daisy gets a significant weight swing on Willinga Rufio for a 2.6-length defeat, but she doesn’t have the upside.
How to play it: Willinga Rufio to win.
Race 5 – 1.20PM ROGER NORTON HANDICAP (2000 METRES)
4. King Of Clubs looked disappointing on face value first up at Rosehill two weeks ago. He sat outside a moderate tempo over 1500m where the leader won. He was beaten 2.5 lengths, finishing eighth. Perhaps they simply went too slow in front for the four-year-old import. The race turned into a 400m sprint home and he couldn’t match it with genuine milers possessing a turn of foot. Want to give him another chance out to 2000m, stripping fitter and in a race with more pressure that will ensure it’s more a test of stamina and sustained speed. 1. Arapaho was a victim of a slow tempo himself last start. He was no match for Surf Dancer who completely dominated the race from in front. 3. Born A King has made steady improvement each run this time back and looks ready to win now.
How to play it: King Of Clubs towin.
Race 6 – 1.55PM NSW BOOKMAKERS CO-OP HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
13. Quatenus has built herself a tidy record, working her way through the grades. She has never missed a top three placing in her seven starts. First up last preparation she put a gap on
14. Petulant before measuring up in city class. She bumped into speedster Authentic Jewel on two occasions and couldn’t reel her in, but there is no shame in that. Like the way she trialled up behind her stablemate Kallos in the quickest of the 800m heats at Hawkesbury that morning. 7. Miracle Day also maps to get a cosy run, which looks significant in an evenly matched field of sprinters. She charged through the grades last campaign and sets up well here, tackling the 1100m fresh on the back of two strong trials. 3. Rupertaar was perhaps flattered by the slow tempo at Randwick first up, but she has now won four of her six starts.
How to play it: Quatenus to win.
Race 7 – 2.30PM DRINKWISE WJ MCKELL CUP (2000 METRES)
5. Surf Dancer is a last-start winner of a benchmark 94 at Rosehill, where he got complete control in front. Despite that, it was the win of a horse that can go right on with it now. He drops 3kg going up to listed company and keen to see what he can do on top of the ground. Suspect he’ll be even more dynamic. 8. Skyman wasn’t suited by the slow tempo set by Surf Dancer last start and did a big job to get as close as he did. It wouldn’t shock in the slightest to see him turn the tables. The best blowout in the race looks to be the class runner, 1. Southern France. First up last preparation he was only 3.8lengths off Verry Elleegant in the group 1 Chipping Norton over the mile. Like the way he has trialled ahead of his return, too.
How to play it: Surf Dancer to win.
Race 8 – 3.05PM WARREN WOODCOCK SENIOR HANDICAP (1500 METRES)
1. Sibaaq had to cart the Wellington Cup field up to the two tearaway leaders, yet he pulled out plenty to win eased down at the finish. That was as the heavily backed odds-on favourite. Would prefer him getting out slightly in trip now third up as opposed to being 1600m back to 1500m, but the import should be improved further from last start and doubt we’ll get too many more opportunities to back him in benchmark 78 company. Keen to see what he can do on a firmer track, too. 4. Irish Legend is one of the most interesting runners across the Rosehill meeting. He improved sharply from his first trial into his second. 5. Mach Schnell got control in front at Rosehill last start, but liked the way he raised a second effort to win going away on the line.
How to play it: Sibaaq to win.
Race 9 – 3.45PM ROBERT PATRICKS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
13. Bella Rouge popped down to Melbourne last start for a successful hit-and-run mission at Flemington. The Chris Waller-trained filly was very confidently backed, landing the plunge, and although the margin was only narrow, she overcame a moderate early tempo to get there in the final stride. It was a much better win than the margin suggests. She has got enough tactical speed to land in the first dozen in this, keeping the obvious danger 10. Per Inaway in her sights. Improving filly that we haven’t seen the best of yet. Per Inaway is beautifully placed out to 1300m to win again, particularly from the perfect draw and Dylan Gibbons claiming 3kg. 3. Lady Of Luxury was no match for Niffler at Rosehill last start. Perhaps straight out to 1400m second up caught her half a run short. Either way, she’s better than that.
How to play it: Bella Rouge to win.
Race 10 – 4.25PM BARRY COOK HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
13. French Marine chased in vein last start, but he lost no admirers in defeat. It was a leader-dominated race and being crowded at the top of the straight cost him finishing closer to the quinella. He hit the line locked together with Jojo Was A Man. Dylan Gibbons sticks with the four-year-old and he finds a near identical race here. The biggest factor in his favour is where he likely finds himself in the run. Many of his obvious dangers have drawn off the track and face tasks either getting across to settle prominently or will be forced back to the tail of the field. 6. El Buena gets a 1.5kg weight swing on 1. Kingsheir from last start, coupled with a much kinder map. That can see him turn the tables. He is well placed to go one better than first and second up.
How to play it: French Marine each way.
Tips supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.
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