Ukraine must maintain Western attention to win this war

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Opinion

Ukraine must maintain Western attention to win this war

“Let’s defeat Russian hatred! In the name of children killed by the Russian army.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke these words in a speech to the American Jewish Committee Global Forum over the weekend. It was just one speech of the many hundreds given by Zelensky since the war began on February 24. In that time, he has addressed national parliaments, international assemblies and universities.

Volodymyr Zelensky has mastered the art of communicating with a global audience.

Volodymyr Zelensky has mastered the art of communicating with a global audience.Credit:Zelenskiy_official/Instagram

The Ukrainian president has mastered communicating with a global audience over the past three and a half months. But it is an audience that has a short attention span. Moreover, it is an audience that is now beginning to see the war as the cause of their high (and climbing) power, fuel and grocery bills.

Western support is critical to the Ukrainian effort to defend its territory, and for its counter-offensives to regain those parts of the country seized by the Russian military. And sustaining this support means that Ukraine, its president, its citizen information warriors and its diplomatic corps will need to continue their efforts to engage the politicians and populations of the United States, Europe and beyond.

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I have previously made the case for why Western nations must nurture their capacity for strategic patience in this war. The Russo-Ukraine War is unlikely to be over in the short term. Both sides possess the will and the resources to continue fighting well into 2023 and possibly beyond. But at some point, Russia’s size, brutality and relative wealth will begin to crush the Ukrainians without ongoing Western assistance. Despite their courage and battlefield success so far, the Ukrainians could still lose this war if the West doesn’t continue, or even step up, its support.

What are the mechanisms available to the Ukrainians to sustain this support?

First, and most importantly, the Ukrainians will need to sustain their national unity in opposing the Russian invasion. So far, there has been a remarkable level of cohesion in the Ukrainian government and the wider community. This is foundational to their national mobilisation of resources to resist the Russian army, and to elicit global sympathy and aid. While there is no suggestion that an appeasement of Russia has any support within the Ukrainian polity, any emergence of such a movement in a war-weary nation would impact on international support.

Second, the Ukrainians will need to build transparency about where Western aid is being sent. Whether this is military equipment being used on the battlefield, or humanitarian assistance for deplaned Ukrainians, the Zelensky government must be as transparent as possible (within military security boundaries) so that Western populations and governments can see the benefits of the aid they are providing. They should use this transparency as a positive feedback loop to ensure more assistance.

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Third, President Zelensky and his ministers will need to continue providing information to government leaders in the international community so that they can communicate the costs and benefits of supporting Ukraine in this war. While Zelensky’s speeches online are powerful, ultimately it is elected officials in multiple nations who must convince their people of the need for sacrifices (mainly in the form of inflation) to combat Russian aggression.

Fourth, the Ukrainians have a major role to play in combating Russian disinformation operations around the world. Few understand Russian motivations and strategy like the Ukrainians. Countries such as China, which has close economic and other relationships with Russia, have shown little inclination to support Ukraine or the fight against Putin’s brutality in that country. Russia has also focused on nations in Africa and South Asia to minimise the influence of Ukraine’s global information campaign – and sustain its energy exports to gain important revenue to fund its war. Ukraine will need to support Western efforts to wean these nations off Russian energy, and its lies.

Finally, as he has done throughout the war, President Zelensky will need to provide Western audiences with a compelling purpose for their attention, and for their assistance. While the case for resisting Russian aggression is clear, and the brutality of Russian operations well documented, Zelensky and his government must ensure they develop new and innovative ways to describe why defending Ukraine is important. As attention fades in Western nations, this will become increasingly difficult.

A Kuzova village resident (centre) looks on as police exhume the bodies of his mother, brother and son to investigate alleged war crimes by Russian forces during the invasion of Ukraine.

A Kuzova village resident (centre) looks on as police exhume the bodies of his mother, brother and son to investigate alleged war crimes by Russian forces during the invasion of Ukraine.Credit:Getty

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The innovation demonstrated by Ukraine’s government and its citizens to show the world what is occurring in this war has played a significant role in soliciting aid and sympathy from many nations, principally the United States.

But to sustain the attention of impatient populations and fickle politicians, the Ukrainians must take nothing for granted about ongoing international assistance. They will need to continue to work hard on the global influence campaign.

With the exception of those serving in the Ukrainian foreign legions, Westerners are shedding little blood to defend Ukraine. But their aid and support is vital to help Ukraine win a fight against authoritarian aggression that, in the long term, benefits us all.

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